Newsletter | 2019 Q3

2019 Q3 Residential Statistics

* Submitted Lots data may be delayed depending on each agency's reporting process.

Canyon County Construction Continues

With 1,875 new residential construction permits issued versus 1,542 new subdivision lots recorded, 2019 Q3 delivered another deficit of -333 residential lots. As a result, the outstanding vacant lots supply dwindled further still to just under 6,200 residential lots in the Treasure Valley. Contrast this with four years ago, when there were nearly 9,000 oustanding vacant lots and construction was only 60% of current activity levels. It is also noteworthy that focus shifted toward building in Canyon county, where 2019 Q3 permits increased 47% over 2018 Q3, whereas Ada permits only increased 2.7% year-over-year.

In 2017 and 2018, building permits activity during the 4th quarter exceeded permits issued during their previous 3rd quarter. This two-year phenomenon deviates from the historical trend, when Q4 typically marks a slower season of new construction starts. Yet under current market conditions, the ever-reducing vacant lots supply must surely exhibit an impact on output in the mid-term future. As such, between winter temperatures and the short supply of bare ground, it seems likely that Q4 will return to the historic trend and see fewer permits than this quarter's 1,875 residential new construction applications.

With these supply/demand forces in play, investment into multi-family projects is surging. Numerous projects kicked off during the 3rd quarter, with permits to start construction on 250+ units at The Linder Projects in Eagle, 131 units for Heron's Edge Community in Eagle, 35-acres of 10-plexes at The Villages in Nampa, the 26-unit Valor Pointe Apartments in Boise, and a multi-million dollar Quail Point Apartments development in Nampa, not to mention approvals for a dozen duplexes issued between July and September. As we have forecast in previous analyses, the efforts to accommodate a growing population against the backdrop of limited lots is set to deliver more apartments and high density housing in the coming years.

Likewise, surrounding counties such as Gem and Twin Falls are likely to receive increased attention from developers and homebuyers. Fortunately for our users, landproDATA has endeavored to provide coverage of critical Plats and Survey documents in both of these counties, and we are poised to expand throughout other active counties in Idaho with increased data access during the next twelve months.