Newsletter | 2019 Q2

2019 Q2 Residential Statistics

* Submitted Lots data may be delayed depending on each agency's reporting process.

Ada County Construction Peaked?

With 2,031 new residential construction permits issued versus 1,151 new subdivision lots recorded during 2019 Q2, the previous three months delivered another deficit of -880 residential lots. At this time, there is less than one year of outstanding inventory available for new home building. Unless an influx of new lots is injected into the marketplace via subdivision recordings, we are likely to see the pace of new home construction plateau for the medium-term future. Simply put, there are not enough new lots to support year-to-year acceleration in construction volumes.

It is probable that a surge of recorded plats in Q3 and Q4 will provide some catch-up during Fall and Winter. That said, it is evident that a dwindling supply of new lots continues to impact the Treasure Valley housing market. Land costs and development processes are more expensive, which has contributed to 5-7% year-over-year price increases on new homes despite higher annual construction volumes. Meanwhile, sales prices on existing homes are seeing even greater appreciation at 8-12%, but fewer homes are being listed. The implication is that despite a seller's market delivering higher offers, current homeowners are largely opting to stay put.**

** MLS Sales Data (source)

In our 2019 Q1 analysis we postulated that New Residential building permits issued in Ada county during 2019 would have trouble surpassing the total issued in 2018 due to a dwindling supply of vacant lots. As it stands, the 0 permits issued during 2019 Q2 in Ada county fell short of the 0 for the same quarter in 2018.

Instead, 2019 Q2 volume shifted significantly toward Canyon county, where the availability of land yields improved affordability for developers, builders, and home buyers alike. Nevertheless, the delayed movement toward new projects in Canyon has also left Nampa and Caldwell a shrinking supply of vacant lots.

With waning daylight now cooling the construction season, we will see what planning and engineering efforts can do to alleviate diminishing lots before 2020 kicks off.