Newsletter | 2019 Q1

2019 Q1 Residential Statistics

* Submitted Lots data may be delayed depending on each agency's reporting process.

Lots Supply Reduced Again

With 2,385 new residential construction permits issued versus 874 new subdivision lots recorded during 2019 Q1, the brief replenishment of vacant lots experienced at the end of 2018 was almost immediately tapped with a net reduction of 1,511 residential lots since January 1st. At this point, any new construction activity is following directly on the heels of the development process.

MLS Sales Statistics reports that Days on Market for new construction in Ada county increased to 75 DOM in Q1, but median and average prices on new homes are still up 6-7% over last year, and dollar volume far exceeded 2018 Q1 sales by nearly 30%.

In the realm of existing home sales, 12% fewer houses were sold, but those that did went for 8-9% higher sales prices compared with 2018 Q1. This might reflect that homeowners are holding onto their property in a market where "trading out" incurs higher costs than seems worthwhile. Barring any major macroecononic fluctuations, we anticipate a highly competitive housing market during this warm season that is rapidly putting Boise home prices on par with nearby metropolitan areas.

We already predicted that the increasing rate of construction experienced from year-to-year since 2010 is unsustainable due to all latent approved lots from pre-2005 having been built-out, and that Nampa and Caldwell are targeted as new hubs for residential development. Unless recorded lots can catch up in Q2 and Q3, it would not be a surprising turn of events if New Residential building permits issued in Ada county during 2019 barely surpasses the total issued in 2018.