Newsletter | 2018 Q3

2018 Q3 Residential Statistics

* Submitted Lots data may be delayed depending on each agency's reporting process.

Long-Awaited Vacant Lots Replenishment

With 2,259 new residential construction permits issued versus 2,042 new subdivision lots recorded during 2018 Q3, a long overdue replenishment of our dwindling vacant lots supply netted a gain of -217 residential lots available for home building.

As seen in the green line above, a decline in 3rd quarter building activity is expected as a seasonal trend. But the recent drop was much sharper than in previous years, and could be the result of various factors that affect construction rates. That said, a tightening bottleneck on construction was predicted in previous quarter analyses based purely on supply and demand reasoning.

Aside from the exception of a blue-line spike in 2016 Q4, vacant lots have been consistently consumed at a greater speed than new subdivisions have replenished during each quarter. As the supply of vacant lots dwindles, new challenges inevitably arise that thwart the streamlined production opportunities of a market with more abundant inventory.

From the consumer side, a decline in MLS new home sales in Q3 versus Q2 diverges from previous seasonal trends, as shown by the yellow line. But a brief survey of MLS Sales Statistics shows increasing average and median prices all year long, as well as fewer Days on Market. Moreover, the volume of Existing Homes sold was largely unchanged between Q2 and Q3. These together suggest that buyer demand remains high, but reduced construction rates impacted the availabilty of new homes and consumption was forced to slow as well.

All in all, land development timelines and the reducing vacant lots supply appear to have influenced downstream market events this quarter. As winter now contributes to construction slowdowns and lighter buyer demand, the development community has a window of opportunity to prepare new lots before Spring of 2019 kicks construction back into high gear.