Continued Vacant Lots Replenishment

With 1,606 new residential construction permits issued versus 2,180 new subdivision lots recorded during 2018 Q4, the replenishment of vacant lots continues with a net gain of 574 new residential lots available for home building. In conjunction with the surplus of lots recorded in Q3, the development community provided a net gain of over 750 residential lots during 2018 to combat the decreasing supply of recent years. This boost will facilitate construction through 2019 as warmer months bring an increased seasonal pace.

It is noteworthy that although MLS new home sales in yellow typically tracks in parallel with building permits in green, a minor convergence in Q3 suggested that demand exceeded the supply chain velocity, perhaps as a result of pre-purchases before construction was complete. An alternative interpretation is that builders who report their sales to MLS had a higher share of total sales in Q3 versus Q4. In either case, we see in that this was followed by a necessary corrective divergence in Q4 to bring them back toward an overall parallel relationship.

On the topic of supply and demand, MLS Sales Statistics report that Days on Market for new construction in Ada county dropped again to only 46 DOM in Q4, just enough time to clear escrow. Meanwhile median new home price climbed another 10% year-over-year, making it evident that demand is clamoring to obtain new product.

Overall, demand for housing in the Treasure Valley remains very strong, and proactive developments during 2018 have provided some relief to the decreasing availability of vacant lots. These factors will give builders a good foothold to start the year in 2019.

That said, construction rates may see deceleration in the ensuing years. The low-hanging fruits in undeveloped land are already planned or built-out; submittals in Boise are focused on higher-density townhome lots or apartments due to scarce acreage; and annexation of county territory into city limits is a common occurrence for larger preliminary plats. It is reasonable to expect that the effort to create new infrastructure along the fringes of our cities will inhibit the pace of construction as compared with post-recession activity in a cityscape that was ripe for infill growth. To be clear, this is not to suggest that overall building volume will slow down, rather that the rate of increase year-over-year may experience reduction.

For these reasons, Nampa and Caldwell have already been heating up with attention from developers and builders, a trend that is sure to continue. And beyond the Treasure Valley, Gem and Elmore counties are likely to see greater recognition among investors and home buyers seeking price relief from this increasingly competitive marketplace. Meanwhile, multi-family projects around the Boise metropolitan area will certainly have more importance to accommodate the city's growing population against a backdrop of diminishing land.